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Abstract Linking sequence-derived microbial taxa abundances to host (patho-)physiology or habitat characteristics in a reproducible and interpretable manner has remained a formidable challenge for the analysis of microbiome survey data. Here, we introduce a flexible probabilistic modeling framework, VI-MIDAS (variational inference for microbiome survey data analysis), that enables joint estimation of context-dependent drivers and broad patterns of associations of microbial taxon abundances from microbiome survey data. VI-MIDAS comprises mechanisms for direct coupling of taxon abundances with covariates and taxa-specific latent coupling, which can incorporate spatio-temporal information and taxon–taxon interactions. We leverage mean-field variational inference for posterior VI-MIDAS model parameter estimation and illustrate model building and analysis using Tara Ocean Expedition survey data. Using VI-MIDAS’ latent embedding model and tools from network analysis, we show that marine microbial communities can be broadly categorized into five modules, including SAR11-, nitrosopumilus-, and alteromondales-dominated communities, each associated with specific environmental and spatiotemporal signatures. VI-MIDAS also finds evidence for largely positive taxon–taxon associations in SAR11 or Rhodospirillales clades, and negative associations with Alteromonadales and Flavobacteriales classes. Our results indicate that VI-MIDAS provides a powerful integrative statistical analysis framework for discovering broad patterns of associations between microbial taxa and context-specific covariate data from microbiome survey data. 

Remote sensing observations from satellites and global biogeochemical models have combined to revolutionize the study of ocean biogeochemical cycling, but comparing the two data streams to each other and across time remains challenging due to the strong spatial-temporal structuring of the ocean. Here, we show that the Wasserstein distance provides a powerful metric for harnessing these structured datasets for better marine ecosystem and climate predictions. The Wasserstein distance complements commonly used point-wise difference methods such as the root-mean-squared error, by quantifying differences in terms of spatial displacement in addition to magnitude. As a test case, we consider chlorophyll (a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass) in the northeast Pacific Ocean, obtained from model simulations, in situ measurements, and satellite observations. We focus on two main applications: (i) comparing model predictions with satellite observations, and (ii) temporal evolution of chlorophyll both seasonally and over longer time frames. The Wasserstein distance successfully isolates temporal and depth variability and quantifies shifts in biogeochemical province boundaries. It also exposes relevant temporal trends in satellite chlorophyll consistent with climate change predictions. Our study shows that optimal transport vectors underlying the Wasserstein distance provide a novel visualization tool for testing models and better understanding temporal dynamics in the ocean.